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Re: The House

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Thu, 20 Sep 12 7:12 PM | 81 view(s)
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Msg. 10216 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 10208 by Cactus Flower)

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Not a map per say, I use www.electionprojection for the House. It is a pretty fickle site, freezes a lot, but it seems of have a lot of local polling of House seats smushed in with pundit spin to make guesses.

They have the House +8 D

In that there are 5 "weak GOP gains" and some 17 "weak GOP holds".

Those are the 22 seats that if variably added to the current +8 projection could throw the house, they would need 15 of the 22 (of course blue would have to hold all its tight races).

Those 22 races (weak GOP win or keep) are :

District / (projected margin of GOP victory)

CA: 10
CO: 3 (+2), 6 (+1.5)
FL: 16 (+4), 18 (+1.6)
GA: 12 (+2)
IL: 13 (+2.5), 17 (+0.1)
IN: 2 (+4)
IA: 3 (+1.5), 4 (+2.5)
MI: 11 (+2.5)
NH: 1 (+1)
NJ: 3 (+4)
NY: 18 (+2.2)
NC: 8 (+0.7)
OH: 6 (+3)
OK: 2 (+4)
PA: 8 (+3)
VA: 2 (+3)
WI: 7 (+3),8 (+4)

SO, after the +8 D currently projected there are these with current margins at or under 4%.

RCP has a differntl list of vulnerable GOP seats:

CA: 7, 26, 52
CO: 6
FL: 18
IA: 4
IL: 10,11
MI: 11
MN: 8
NH: 1
OH: 16
TX: 23

... 13 seats which if lumped in with everything else going Blue would be 206 seats (likely the best case scenario unless those listed above start to flip, and there is some overlap)


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: The House
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Thu, 20 Sep 12 6:28 PM
Msg. 10208 of 54959

do you have a us map source you are using for the house?


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