Appear to me more fudging the data that we get. NOOOOOOOOOOOO They wouldn't do that,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,would they?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/17/2012 19:56 -0400
Barclays
Bond
Monetary Policy
PE Multiple
Reality
Risk Premium
Volatility
As Cantor's Peter Cecchini notes today
"when things are this senseless, a reversion to sensibility will occur again at some point."
His view is to be long vol and as the disconnect between the economic cycle and stocks continues to grow, we present three mind-numbing charts of the exuberant hopefulness that is now priced in (oh yeah, aside from AAPL actually selling some iPhones in pre-order). Whether it is earnings hockey-sticks, global growth ramps, or fiscal cliff resolutions, it seems the market can only see the silver-lining. We temper that extreme bullish view with the fact that all the monetary policy good news has to be out now - for Ben hath made it so with QEternity.
These three factors - weak economic growth, powerful monetary policy and elevated public policy uncertainty - remain the critical drivers of performance and with weakening data, the market is all the more dependent on central bank life support - and following the rally through the Fed signalling period to 1460, much of the monetary policy related rally seems to be priced in, with the market already discounting considerable data improvement. With already high oil, gasoline and food prices, the Fed’s balance sheet expansion risks driving down the dollar, boosting commodities and dampening consumption and thus growth.
As this chart comparing P/E multiples to the ISM New Orders index, we need to see some serious unicorn-conjuring for these valuations to be sustained...
Realist - Everybody in America is soft, and hates conflict. The cure for this, both in politics and social life, is the same -- hardihood. Give them raw truth.
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