Yup (on flier polls). I haven't used the huff tools much, and do appreciate that Silver uses fudge factors depending on the source.
I like Rasmussen, it is kinda my bad day benchmark. They are a point or two Red compared to others, but blue voting turnout can be so remarkably soft at times that Rasmussen basically accommodates that concern for me.
Silver uses similar regions to compile guesstimates where the data is thin ... IA might always vote the same as a well polled state or district elsewhere e.g.
I'm kinda suprised at the lack of polling in the swing states over the last 10 days. I would have expected a fair bit, but instead it is NY and CA etc.
I was surprised to see MT comein at only +5 for Mitt from PPP. Perhaps the gov's speach at the DNC had some effect. It won't swing MT, and it may only be local appeal, or perhaps it speaks towards that kind of liberal-redneck-fiscal-conservative out there.
There are a lot more liberal-redneck-fiscal-conservatives in the US than folks think. Again, a tortured Venn diagram, but I suspect a bigger demographic than folks think.
Its the person who believes 1. you pay your bills, 2. school should be affordable 3. they really like to shoot stuff 4. there is a reasonable role for immigration and 5. mind your own business on everything else (life-choice, land use, speed limits).
It makes for a confusing demographic: Pro-choice, anti-regulation, pro-gun, states-rights, well-funded schools, managed immigration.
Right now those are in party terms: blue, red, red, red, blue, blue. Net 0
On those Obo is (or perceived as): agree, disagree, (disagree/agree), disagree, agree, agree. Net +1
Mitt is: disagree, agree, agree, agree/disagree, disagree, disagree. Net -1.
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