Hi dig,
haven't used the rcp map. but the nice thing about the pollster version is you can remove poor quality pollsters. there are some who look like they are deliberately polling to move the dial for everyone (eg purple strategies, gravis). there are others who just can't get a consistent result (eg mitchell).
when i exclude these guys from ohio, it changes from a chart that looks like a narrowing race:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-ohio-president-romney-vs-obama?gem
to this, in which I think a shorter trendline regression interval would show Obama's numbers bending upwards:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-ohio-president-romney-vs-obama?gem#!hiddenpollsters=gravis-marketing,purple-strategies
the latest ppp poll looks on the money to me: 50:45:5.
removing pollsters really shouldn't change anything. yet it does. which tells you something.
note - i leave rasmussen in, because the fact that they lean to the right is less important than the fact they seem to derive results consistent with the pattern of other pollsters.
so i have ohio in the obama column. i'm with nate silver on this. i don't treat all pollsters as equal. some are more equal than others.
silver shows 78.1% probability of ohio for obama, by the way.
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