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Re: The MI poll

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Thu, 13 Sep 12 7:21 PM | 101 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 10010 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 10009 by DigSpace)
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Hi dig,

haven't used the rcp map. but the nice thing about the pollster version is you can remove poor quality pollsters. there are some who look like they are deliberately polling to move the dial for everyone (eg purple strategies, gravis). there are others who just can't get a consistent result (eg mitchell).

when i exclude these guys from ohio, it changes from a chart that looks like a narrowing race:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-ohio-president-romney-vs-obama?gem

to this, in which I think a shorter trendline regression interval would show Obama's numbers bending upwards:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-ohio-president-romney-vs-obama?gem#!hiddenpollsters=gravis-marketing,purple-strategies

the latest ppp poll looks on the money to me: 50:45:5.

removing pollsters really shouldn't change anything. yet it does. which tells you something.

note - i leave rasmussen in, because the fact that they lean to the right is less important than the fact they seem to derive results consistent with the pattern of other pollsters.

so i have ohio in the obama column. i'm with nate silver on this. i don't treat all pollsters as equal. some are more equal than others.

silver shows 78.1% probability of ohio for obama, by the way.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: The MI poll
By: DigSpace in ALEA
Thu, 13 Sep 12 7:06 PM 		Msg. 10009 of 54959

I certainly have notched MI as Obo, and was more pointing out that while the last poll showed a widening lead, I just don't think that is the case.

I'd like to see new state data on WI, IA, CO, NH and NV. The RCP map plus those states is 272 while giving Red all of FL, NC, VI, and OH.

It's cute because I don't think anybody has ever lost OH and FL and won.

I think Obo takes OH, but sweeping the above small states is the path in the case of a double FL OH loss.

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