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Re: The MI poll

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Thu, 13 Sep 12 7:06 PM | 97 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 10009 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 10008 by Cactus Flower)
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I certainly have notched MI as Obo, and was more pointing out that while the last poll showed a widening lead, I just don't think that is the case.

I'd like to see new state data on WI, IA, CO, NH and NV. The RCP map plus those states is 272 while giving Red all of FL, NC, VI, and OH.

It's cute because I don't think anybody has ever lost OH and FL and won.

I think Obo takes OH, but sweeping the above small states is the path in the case of a double FL OH loss.



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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: The MI poll
By: Cactus Flower in ALEA
Thu, 13 Sep 12 6:39 PM 		Msg. 10008 of 54959

mi is michigan!

regression shows a 4 point lead

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-michigan-president-romney-vs-obama?gem

silver shows 96.2% chance of Dem win.

also, the mi economy is doing better than most with lower than average unemployment, thanks to the gm bail-out.

I think it is a very likely win for O also.

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