I don't think those house numbers mean much ... gerrymandering and the nature of the polls (A & RV vs LV) pretty much requires one looks at individual races and put it altogether.
It is well established that if everybody voted the Congress would move considerably to the left. They don't.
The Pres numbers on the other hand are something ... Obama approval over 50%, I am not aware of that not winning. Somewhere around 46-47% is where it gets very squeaky.
And of course the bounce.
Seeing the target audience is the 10% in the middle, I think the Blues re-framing the debate to a debate between two paths as opposed to simply a referendum would play well in that 10% land. The 10% really doesn't resemble much of anything the newly far-right Mitt and the always far-right Ryan stand for or the platform of the Red party.
Mitt needed the jobs report that just came out to even be in this thing.
In the absence of a black swan, it is hard to see this going for Mitt. It is not as if Obama isn't a capable debater. There is always the opportunity for something crazy 'what would you do if your daughters were raped and beheaded in front of you while buying hot-dogs at the county fair', but Obama is no Dukakis.
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