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Re: Nate Silver prediction on Nov 6, Electoral

By: faul in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Sun, 09 Sep 12 5:01 PM | 96 view(s)
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Msg. 09883 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 09879 by Cactus Flower)

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Hi Alea........

Unfortunately i have little faith in official government
figures...........the governments tell you inflation is
running around at around 2-3% when reality tells you
it's more like double figures.The Government tells you
unemployment is 8.1% when it's over 11%.....or even up
over the 20% figure depending on who you omit & who you
include.......Figures are fudged,the electorate lied to...
it's called Politics.

You see B.B & Keynes as saviours.....i see them as demons.

Nope.....i'm not giving myself another year.....this is it.....
awaiting the post elections,the shoe in of another 4 more
years of Obama & then the Elites to crash the system.....through
war,finance,disease or an alien invasion:o

If i'm wrong............i'll have to reconsider my beliefs,i haven't
set them in stone.

Anyhow i'm taking a few years off,haven't worked for months,
cancelled my contract,sold my house,paid all my debts &
soon heading for the Tropics with my family.....coconuts,white
sandy beaches & cyan seas...........Smile



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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Nate Silver prediction on Nov 6, Electoral
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Sat, 08 Sep 12 11:25 PM
Msg. 09879 of 54959

Hi doma,

Maybe you are thinking about quantitative easing.

The context in which QE is viable is when the currency is in a deflationary phase, as it has been and continues to be. While this continues, it makes sense to issue new money/ buy treasuries.

If US treasuries continue to run low interest rates, this tells you the market still has confidence in the value of US debt. This is the situation we are seeing now. People still want to hold instruments which will maintain their value. They believe Treasuries represent a safe store of value. They bid up the price etc.

If the market begins to see better value elsewhere, then treasury values will begin to fall and treasury interest rates will begin to rise; at some point, the whole federal reserve monetary process will go into reverse. You'll see quantitative tightening (ie normal monetary responses), to combat inflation. The Fed will also reverse the debt transaction with the US treasury, which can be achieved much the same way as it was implemented: stroke of a pen.

When the US owes money to itself, this is a bit different from when it owes the money to foreign governments.

In a year, you'll give yourself another year, as all the other prophets of doom do. ;-) But the post-crash inflationistas have mostly discovered their economics fails in a depression type of environment in which the central bank remains a credible force.

The point? Monetary policy is contextual. The opposing forces in play probably limit the amount of QE which can be undertaken all at once. But the Fed can do a whole bunch of treasury purchasing without creating inflation in a depressed economy.


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