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Re: Nate Silver prediction on Nov 6, Electoral

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Sun, 09 Sep 12 12:05 AM | 106 view(s)
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Msg. 09880 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 09879 by Cactus Flower)

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That is not to say QE is a cure-all.

As I've said repeatedly, I think the government must do some long term structural planning.

Build a twenty first infrastructure. It is worth borrowing to do that. It pays back current investments in future dollars. The whole of society benefits if the US has new sources of energy, a smarter grid, a more secure internet, more efficient transportation, more efficient healthcare, the encouragement of innovation etc., as well as the removal of perverse benefits in the tax code (eg in favour of oil companies) and the introduction of a more progressive income tax code so that surplus resources are more broadly available to the sorts of people who take risks and build new businesses - ordinary people rather than billionaires.

And then the US needs a cure for its biggest obstruction. Its constitution.




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Nate Silver prediction on Nov 6, Electoral
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Sat, 08 Sep 12 11:25 PM
Msg. 09879 of 54959

Hi doma,

Maybe you are thinking about quantitative easing.

The context in which QE is viable is when the currency is in a deflationary phase, as it has been and continues to be. While this continues, it makes sense to issue new money/ buy treasuries.

If US treasuries continue to run low interest rates, this tells you the market still has confidence in the value of US debt. This is the situation we are seeing now. People still want to hold instruments which will maintain their value. They believe Treasuries represent a safe store of value. They bid up the price etc.

If the market begins to see better value elsewhere, then treasury values will begin to fall and treasury interest rates will begin to rise; at some point, the whole federal reserve monetary process will go into reverse. You'll see quantitative tightening (ie normal monetary responses), to combat inflation. The Fed will also reverse the debt transaction with the US treasury, which can be achieved much the same way as it was implemented: stroke of a pen.

When the US owes money to itself, this is a bit different from when it owes the money to foreign governments.

In a year, you'll give yourself another year, as all the other prophets of doom do. ;-) But the post-crash inflationistas have mostly discovered their economics fails in a depression type of environment in which the central bank remains a credible force.

The point? Monetary policy is contextual. The opposing forces in play probably limit the amount of QE which can be undertaken all at once. But the Fed can do a whole bunch of treasury purchasing without creating inflation in a depressed economy.


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