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Re: Nate Silver prediction on Nov 6, Electoral

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Sat, 08 Sep 12 1:18 AM | 63 view(s)
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Msg. 09852 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 09850 by Cactus Flower)

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It's also worth reminding ourselves that household debt as a proportion of GDP has been dropping as government debt has been rising.

At the top of the crash, US household debt was about equal to GDP. Now it is around 87% of it.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N

At some level, consumption recovers.




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Nate Silver prediction on Nov 6, Electoral
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Sat, 08 Sep 12 12:40 AM
Msg. 09850 of 54959

Not sure what numbers doma is using. Here's wikipedia, which confirms that China has been purchasing less US debt recently.

"As of January 2011, foreigners owned $4.45 trillion of U.S. debt, or approximately 47% of the debt held by the public of $9.49 trillion and 32% of the total debt of $14.1 trillion.[64] The largest holders were the central banks of China, Japan, Brazil, Taiwan, United Kingdom, Switzerland and Russia.[66] The share held by foreign governments has grown over time, rising from 13% of the public debt in 1988[67] to 25% in 2007.[68]

As of May 2011 the largest single holder of U.S. government debt was China, with 26 percent of all foreign-held U.S. Treasury securities (8% of total U.S. public debt).[69] China's holdings of government debt, as a percentage of all foreign-held government debt, have decreased a bit between 2010 and 2011, but are up significantly since 2000 (when China held just 6 percent of all foreign-held U.S. Treasury securities).[70]"

Also, it is worth remembering that the US also holds debt from other sovereigns. Not sure what the net debt position is, but perhaps this is what doma is thinking about.


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