silver is the best guesser there is or will ever be.
But silver will tell you it is too early to tell.
The conventions are the biggest mover normally left (baring the Oct surprise notion)
FL, in the end I think FL will make a decision on privatizing or not privatizing the two gov things (So Sec and Med Care)
Mi is Mitts "home state" but the auto bailout state, tough win for mitt.
OH. Historically the Reps have been able to pull OH out of the hat in a tight race, usually through big money and fear. They literally had 10 million folks walk up to every house 2 days before the election and tell them Gore was going to take their guns away. This doesn't work with an incumbent. He's been there for four years, I still have my guns.
While they run on black guy gun rights abortion chaos communist gestapo line, these are better tools to defeat a challenger, not an incumbent.
So, its all about Obamacare. Is big socialism fucking you or not on this matter and this matter alone. He is obviously not taking your guns. His "arab" sympathy is just not borne out by his kill numbers (no president is or ever will be more feared by the "bad" guys).
One is left with only Obamacare.
Will Obamacare swing FL, MI, and OH.
Obamacare is just diluted medicare ...and the auto bailouts simply did preserve jobs.
It is a very difficult path for a Romney victory. I think what you and I need to do is pretend we are Romney folk, and plot the path. Romney can win. My latest RCP pick your map had Romney winning.
| 