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Re: The Republican Convention, opening night!

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Fri, 24 Aug 12 4:27 AM | 107 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 09490 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 09489 by DigSpace)
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Also worth looking at Pollster, which allows you to omit polling organisations like Purple Strategies to get a decent result.

Rasmussen also leans right, but it apparently tracks likely voters and Republicans apparently turn out in higher percentages.

Even so, it is ridiculous that the party which created this recession/depression and which pursues the self-same policies is even in with a shout.




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: The Republican Convention, opening night!
By: DigSpace in ALEA
Fri, 24 Aug 12 4:14 AM 		Msg. 09489 of 54959

Yes, Claire is up by 10, but still below 49 straight out, its not the delta its the absolute to look at.

That is where Mitt is weak.

Freaking Purple strategies is definitely an outlier.

fivethirtyeight is the place to go, they seem to really do a thorough digest and bring in the variables that make it make sense.

PPP has NC +3 Obama in the latest with RCP average at a thin Mitt +1 ... and that is just rubbish. 538 gives Mitt a solid 70% chance to bag NC ... that is more like it.

chance to carry the state:

CO 57% OB
FL 53% Mitt
IA 64% OB (seriously?)
MO 85% Mitt
NC 70% Mitt
NH 74% OB (swing my ass)
NV 75% OB
OH 70% OBPA 87% OB
VA 63% OB
WI 70% WI (doubt it)

but look at the error bars, pretty fat this far out +/- 5 to 7% depending on the state making FL and IA a tossup at this point.


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