Forum Home | Log in | Signup | My Page | Rules | FAQ | Boards | Members | Search
« ALEA Home | Email msg. | Reply to msg. | Post new | Board info. Previous | Home | Next

Re: The Republican Convention, opening night!

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Fri, 24 Aug 12 4:14 AM | 99 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 09489 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 09487 by clo)
Jump:
Jump to board:
Jump to msg. #

Yes, Claire is up by 10, but still below 49 straight out, its not the delta its the absolute to look at.

That is where Mitt is weak.

Freaking Purple strategies is definitely an outlier.

fivethirtyeight is the place to go, they seem to really do a thorough digest and bring in the variables that make it make sense.

PPP has NC +3 Obama in the latest with RCP average at a thin Mitt +1 ... and that is just rubbish. 538 gives Mitt a solid 70% chance to bag NC ... that is more like it.

chance to carry the state:

CO 57% OB
FL 53% Mitt
IA 64% OB (seriously?)
MO 85% Mitt
NC 70% Mitt
NH 74% OB (swing my ass)
NV 75% OB
OH 70% OBPA 87% OB
VA 63% OB
WI 70% WI (doubt it)

but look at the error bars, pretty fat this far out +/- 5 to 7% depending on the state making FL and IA a tossup at this point.


- - - - -
View Replies (1) »



» You can also:
- - - - -
The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: The Republican Convention, opening night!
By: clo in ALEA
Fri, 24 Aug 12 3:32 AM 		Msg. 09487 of 54959

Hi Cactus Flower,

"outfits like purple strategies can really screw up the averages."

I agree & noticed they lean republican.
I don't give them much credit for their polling.

Claire McCaskill is currently up by 10%, that's a Rasmussen poll, she's probably stronger.
That's a 20% swing, in a week. Todd Akin is toast, wonder if Obama can pick up Missouri?
Okay, maybe I'm overreaching ;))

« ALEA Home | Email msg. | Reply to msg. | Post new | Board info. Previous | Home | Next