While the horse race is all about the spread … Obama +1 in FL or whatever, being a poll gazer as I am, I find the absolute number to be most telling, particularly this early.
Candidates with 49-50+ win.
A 10 point spread means little if it is 43 – 33, there is still too much on the table as 24% has yet to weigh in.
So, with that in mind, the latest round is:
(all Obama numbers)
FL: 49
OH: 49, 50
VA: 50
IA: 44
WI: 49
MI: 48
PA: 49
NH: 51
NC: 49
CO: 49
NV: 47
Mitt has work to do. The convention is normally good for a 4% swing … but most of that is in resolving the “not sure”.
Using this imprecise metric Mitt wins IA, MI, and NV (NV a state he has never “led” in). This would be a 319 electoral victory for OB.
And finally, Rasmussen has McCaskill up by 10 in MO, but only at 48 … still below my winner threshold (48/3
with too much still on the table.
The bottom line is for Mitt to do something about his negatives, that’s what conventions are sometimes all about, so this convention is going to be all about how sweet a guy he is. If it gets to pithy he is doomed.
Romney has real work to do in that area, and it spills into his poling when viewed through my 49 lens.
Take FL, the RCP running average has a dead heat:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html#polls
But, if one looks at the data over the months, Mitt never pulls 49.
Ditto MI, WI, OH and VA.
Folks don’t like the guy. The Anything but Obama croud is having a hard time with this guy … an Almost Anything but Obama election is shaping up.
Its till a nail biter, and Dems generally score a pinch below their polling, but Mitt has work to do.
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