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Slumping Commercial Real Estate Sales Are Latest Flashing Red Non-Recovery Indicator 

By: capt_nemo in ROUND | Recommend this post (1)
Thu, 23 Aug 12 8:54 PM | 36 view(s)
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LOT of commercial around here for sale and more for lease!!!!!!!!!!!

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/23/2012 11:52 -0400

Barclays
Commercial Real Estate
Real estate

Real Capital Analytics (RCA) released their US commercial real estate transaction data for July last night. The only way to interpret the data is - ugly. After a dismal June (down 33% YoY), July did not see any bounce and in fact plunged 20% YoY with transactions totaling $14.6bn. As Barclays notes, the takeaway is generally negative, as the growth trend has weakened considerably since March ( which was +62% YoY). What is interesting to us is that with Treasury yields so low, the cap-rate 'spread' makes commercial real estate relatively attractive and yet no-one's buying.

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Hype Alert
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Can we just skip all this crap and just start analyzing data from Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe stock markets and see which sectors perform best in centrally planned economies?

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Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:02 | 2730540 NotApplicable
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I'm still amazed at the number of new restaurants being built, only to be abandoned when the note comes due. There's obviously still too many stupid people with access to credit.

But the times, they are a changin'.

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Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:08 | 2730559 Hype Alert
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That's the plan and the poison. Ever expanding growth, ever expanding competition. What no one wants to admit is we have too much global capacity, everywhere and cheap credit to create more.

Hype Alert
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My brother and I were discussing stores of wealth and my arguement of why inflation is theft. He kept saying buy real estate and gave historical examples. With every pitch, I kept hitting back with it was all before property taxes. He had no comeback.

No time in history has an economy successfully inflated it way out of a situation like ours. They've all failed. It's not a good sign.




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Realist - Everybody in America is soft, and hates conflict. The cure for this, both in politics and social life, is the same -- hardihood. Give them raw truth.




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