I’m not saying the TCG with the TPM/MTM is going to take over secure payments.
We've discussed this and if you really take the time to read and re-read if necessary the Globalplatform papers on the TEE and Secure Elements and the vision around the Rich OS/TEE/Secure Elements they spell out what is coming. It's not me or awk or anyone else it's what is written in their specs. It's not for the faint of heart but hell I'm no computer expert but I can read and understand concepts plus I like diagrams
All that is ultimately needed is the TEE and the TPM or MTM functionality on the device. They all work well with each other and the secure elements (which are just a ATM card or Credit Card chip put on a SIM or SD Micro Card or Embedded Chip on the device) will be around until all the players see there is another more efficient way that is less costly for all the parties. The MNO's will not have to cede any turf that they have won from the beginning. I agree with you there that any financial benefit they win will not be given up. Same with the new group of merchants that I posted about yesterday. They are all looking for the most beneficial way to protect their revenue streams and yet somehow be involved with mobile payments. There needs to be a common interoperable technology to allow this to happen.
The TEE allows all Applications that are of value and need protection that the Rich OS can't provide to execute in a secure container (the CPU processor) just like the Secure Element Provides as a SIM/SD Micro Card or embedded Chip.
And yes you are right that all that may take many years to play out. The Running of the secure apps in the TEE and bound to the TPM or MTM makes it as fool proof as the app running in the Banks/MNO's Secure element only with out the cost of the secure element. The MTM/TPM provides other functions that the Secure Element does not have.
Obviously when every thing is in place the various payment Standards bodies will go over it and if it meets their critical certification process it will be certified.
I will repeat, in the beginning there will be the Rich OS/TEE (which houses the TPM MTM functionality) and the various secure elements. If the above takes 10 years to play out so be it. The TPM/MTM will start to be on MicroSoft Devices this Fall
Hope this helps.