So I live in the bluest part of Illinois. The state is beyond hope financially after years of political plunder. I am dismantling my life and salvaging what I can as quickly as possible so I can vote with my feet. I am not alone.
African Americans will not turn out this year. The ones that do will overwhemingly vote for Obama but the gay marriage issue will dissuade many of them from voting. After three and a half years under President Obama most other African Americans see their lives are not better. (75% of the people I interact with are African American)
A similar situation exists among Catholic voters where the abortion issue is mentioned nearly every week at mass. (I am not Catholic but attend mass occassionally)
Across the board I see far less enthusiasm for Obama. The 2008 was historic because Obama was African American. There was also a huge anti Bush turn out that no longer is a factor.
So from where I sit, I expect Obama will carry Illinois in the Midwest and nothing else. The Walker recall will serve as a preview to November.
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