in part:
Ryan pick alters metrics for congressional elections
By Aaron Blake, Published: August 11
Rep. Paul Ryan’s selection as Mitt Romney’s running mate has the power to reshape the race for control of Congress, with the already-simmering issue of the Wisconsin Republican’s budget now firmly at the forefront of the 2012 election.
Democrats have gotten significant mileage out of attacking the budget Ryan has proposed as chairman of the House Budget Committee, particularly the portion that aims to turn Medicare into a voucher program.
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Even when the language is more neutral, Americans are resistant to the idea of Medicare being transformed into a voucher program. A Pew Research Center poll last year showed 34 percent favored a voucher program, while 65 percent preferred that the program remain as-is.
Democrats need to win 25 House seats to retake the chamber, and they need to lose no more than three Senate seats to keep their majority there. The Senate is considered to be more in play in 2012, with Democrats defending many conservative-leaning and swing states.
Political analysts generally agree that the Ryan budget poses problems for the GOP. Republicans have had to vote for it and press the issue, they argue, because the conservative base expects them to do something major on the budget with their newfound House majority, not necessarily because it’s good politics.
“From a political standpoint, Medicare reform is very dangerous territory. House Republicans are not just pushing the envelope — they are soaking it with lighter fluid and waving a match at it,” nonpartisan analyst Charlie Cook wrote when the GOP first voted on Ryan’s budget.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ryan-pick-alters-metrics-for-congressional-elections/2012/08/11/77717614-e3e8-11e1-a25e-15067bb31849_story.html?hpid=z2
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