The Political Calculus of a Ryan Selection
The calculus involved with a Ryan selection is particularly fascinating, in the train wreck sense.
If Ryan **is** the choice, would it convey a lack of confidence for him to accept shotgun on the Presidential ticket while still running to retain his House seat? It's certainly legal, it's not unprecedented, but is it politically wise?
That's not an easy question to answer. If Ryan abandons his House race to present an "all in" front for the ticket and Romney loses, the Republicans lose a "three-fer" -- Romney returns to one of his three homes to figure out which one to claim on this year's taxes as his primary residence AND the Republican party possibly loses a seat in the House AND the Republican party loses its "brand" on its signature budget strategy.
If Ryan keeps his name on the ballot and Romney loses by a hair, the old gaurd of the Republican party will blame Ryan for weakening the candidate by publicly hedging his own political future and lock him out of the power structure of the party, widening the fissure between the Tea Party and old-money wings of the party and possibly causing a complete split.
Regardless of what Ryan does with his House seat race, if the Romney-Ryan ticket goes down in flames (losing by more than 5% would qualify in today's bitterly but evenly divided scene), both wings of the party will burn so much energy on blame-shifting that we'll likely face even MORE paralysis and in four years, the Republican Party will look VASTLY different than it does now.
A selection of a ultra-conservative, scorched earth budget hawk by a Presidential candidate with little discernable consistency in ANY position he's ever publicly stated says everything about the talent within and selection process of the Republican Party.
WTH
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