Guidance:
In prepared remarks: >> "We were expecting, I think -- not I think -- we were expecting stronger growth in both Q1 and Q2 and the enterprise adoption. Now, it's not that customers are telling us they're not interested, it's that it's taking them longer to make a decision in actual deployment than we expected. Deals we expected to close in Q1 ARE JUST CLOSING NOW."
**(call this the $8-10m two phantom flood deals?)**
LENOVO: >>… "we would expect Lenovo to be a very strong contributor in 2013. To guess the specific number is really hard. I mean the potential that's there is between 30 million and 40 million units and we're averaging in the $30 to $50 range per unit, that number is too high. But I also have a hard time believing that it still remains in the 2% to 3% level. So I would certainly like to see in 2013 that we get to 10% of new machines that are turning on trusted computing, which gets to a much more significant revenue contribution."
**(so let’s use 2%, 1/3rd of 30mm units * 0.02 * $30 a seat … = $6m Sept-Dec … I think this is off and is high, but that is the bottom end of this guidance)**
SAMSUNG: >>"The Samsung business is brand new. My experience with brand-new OEMs is they need to show us the numbers. Certainly, Samsung is a huge manufacturer. What we're doing today is reflected against their PC business, which is not their largest volume business, but that bleeds into their mobile business in 2013."
**(not a ton of PCs with TPMs, mostly their ultrabooks, call it a million units at a buck a unit, = $1m Sept-Dec)**
NATO (and US Gov): >>"NATO, on the other hand, is ultimately going to follow, I think, US government in scale deployment. WE'RE EXPECTING US GOVERNMENT SCALE DEPLOYMENT TO HAPPEN IN 2013. That should represent in $30 million to $50 million worth of business, and NATO is probably equivalent in size."
**(but then he says later something to the effect of ‘who knows when with DoD’ … so is he talking different gov business?, nevertheless, the words are “… to happen in 2013 … $30-50m”, call it 30)**
So, consider overlap and call base business $2m/month = $8m Sept-Dec
The old deals “closing now” = $8m now-Dec
Lenovo = $6m Sept-Dec
Sammy = $1m Sept-Dec
Gov = $30m Sept-Dec
That is $53m in guidance Sept-Dec. The gov part being a bit contradictory if one mushes it together with the later DoD comments of ‘who knows when’. Without gov this is $23m + $4m for Jul-Aug or $27m in guidance on top of the $14 booked so far for $41m plus whatever the “gov in scale 2013 $30m of business means” all in the same call where he agonized to come up with $50m for the year.
So, I run that all through my Lee-Translator and come up with 2013 $49m in billings and $38m in revs. b.e. Q4. (EBITAS, not GAAP). And some cash. They would have some cash. Maybe $8m at the end of the year.
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