Right now, Romney is in grave danger of joining the list of money-rich candidates who ended up as roadkill. Look at the polling data. According to the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, Obama is up about three and a half per cent in the national race, his biggest lead in quite a while. At the state level, the numbers are even more worrying for the G.O.P. Just last week, Rove himself acknowledged that Ohio and Colorado, two key swing states, had moved from “toss up” to “lean Obama,” and that Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, three states Romney desperately needs, were still too close to call. If the Republican candidate doesn’t win Florida and at least two of three from North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, it is very difficult to see him getting two hundred and seventy votes in the Electoral College.
Reflecting this reality, the betting markets are pointing to an Obama victory. At Ladbrokes, the British bookmaker, the President is now the prohibitive 2/5 favorite—meaning you have to bet fifty dollars to win twenty. Romney is a 2/1 outsider, suggesting that the probability of him winning is just thirty-three per cent. At Intrade, the political prediction site, the implied probability of a Romney triumph is a bit higher—about forty per cent—but I pay more attention to the bookies, where more real money gets wagered, sometimes by political insiders.
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