Msg. 44766 of 65535 (This msg. is a reply to
44765 by
clo)
Jump:
Right now, Romney is in grave danger of joining the list of money-rich candidates who ended up as roadkill. Look at the polling data. According to the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, Obama is up about three and a half per cent in the national race, his biggest lead in quite a while. At the state level, the numbers are even more worrying for the G.O.P. Just last week, Rove himself acknowledged that Ohio and Colorado, two key swing states, had moved from “toss up” to “lean Obama,” and that Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, three states Romney desperately needs, were still too close to call. If the Republican candidate doesn’t win Florida and at least two of three from North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, it is very difficult to see him getting two hundred and seventy votes in the Electoral College.
Reflecting this reality, the betting markets are pointing to an Obama victory. At Ladbrokes, the British bookmaker, the President is now the prohibitive 2/5 favorite—meaning you have to bet fifty dollars to win twenty. Romney is a 2/1 outsider, suggesting that the probability of him winning is just thirty-three per cent. At Intrade, the political prediction site, the implied probability of a Romney triumph is a bit higher—about forty per cent—but I pay more attention to the bookies, where more real money gets wagered, sometimes by political insiders.
After weeks of negative media, disappointing polls, and sniping from fellow Republicans, Mitt Romney got a bit of good news Monday: he’s still raising more money than his rival. In July, the Romney/G.O.P. campaign raked in $101.3 million, compared to the seventy-five million dollars that Obama and his fellow Democrats garnered. It’s the second month in a row that the Republican campaign has raised more than a hundred million dollars, and these figures don’t even include the vast sums that Karl Rove and his fellow Super PAC wranglers have been rustling up from the likes of Sheldon Adelson, Paul Singer, and Richard Mellon Scaife.
If November’s electorate were confined to millionaires and billionaires, Romney would be a shoo-in. Unfortunately for him, even the G.O.P.’s best efforts to suppress voter turnout through the introduction of voter I.D. laws and the like won’t prevent many less-wealthy Americans from ambling along to their local polling station and pulling the lever. Which means that the Mittster is also going to have to ingratiate himself with the regular folk, something he’s never been particularly adept at.
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