There’s a 15% chance of falling off ‘fiscal cliff,’ J.P. Morgan says
August 7, 2012, 9:58 AM.
Marketwatch.com
Congress isn’t really going to let the so-called fiscal cliff — the planned tax hikes and spending cuts that will be triggered at the end of the year if no action is taken — be triggered, will they?
According to a note published by J.P. Morgan, there’s a 15% chance they will.
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OK, but what’s the most likely scenario? “We think the most probable outcome is Washington ‘punts’ the fiscal outcome by 6 months, by delaying both i) the expiration of tax rates and measures and ii) sequestration,” they said. They give 70% chance to that happening if Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is elected, and a 65% chance if President Barack Obama is re-elected.
More: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2012/08/07/theres-a-15-chance-of-falling-off-fiscal-cliff-j-p-morgan-says/
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