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Re: Day Two - New leader **

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Tue, 31 Jul 12 2:09 AM | 68 view(s)
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Msg. 09086 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 09084 by Cactus Flower)

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the sample size doesn't support the conclusion in a significant way, it is mathematically true, but lacks significance.

Australia goes from infinitely awful with no medals to demi-gods with one medal. That's binary.

In your "huh?" example you dropped Australia (necessarily) because had they been kept in, what I said would be true ... 20% of the population would have to win 100% the medals to win.

Most small countries get nuttin (underperform). Most large countries outperform their relative populations.

And yes, China should get a 59:1 ratio with Australia, but whether that is occurring cannot be determined with significance on the basis of 32 medals. With the 32 extant medals, China needs 100%, and that is your math.

There needs to be some 600 golds awarded or Australia needs to get a second one before Australia can be at all measured.

Yes, Australia shouldn't have one any, but several of the various Australia's should have won some. The situation is where none of 10 should individually win any, but the ten together should win 2 ... which of the 10 that happen to win the 2 not being signfiicant.

Now, were one to use all medals instead of just gold, that would start to help things a bit.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Day Two - New leader **
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Mon, 30 Jul 12 11:54 PM
Msg. 09084 of 54959

Huh?

Example. China wins 22 golds, the US wins 5, Brazil wins 3, Russia wins 2. China wins on a per capita basis.

If every country pulled their weight (and we assume fractional gold medals), China would be doing well if it wins above 20% of the medal count, at, say, 7 gold medals.

Trouble is, countries like Australia are doing better than they are with a single gold out of 32. On a per capita basis, they shouldn't have won any. With one, they are performing incredibly well. So well that China can't do better.

"Requiring 20% of the world to win 100% of the gold to score as top is bungled math."

Yep. It is. But that math isn't mine.

Even so, China should win more than 59 golds to Australia's one to do better than Australia. They are a much larger country.

Per capita works pretty well if you are measuring how well a country has done while removing the size of the country as a variable.

Fact is, small countries often perform better on a per capita basis than the larger ones.


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