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Re: Day Two - New leader **

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Mon, 30 Jul 12 11:12 PM | 58 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 09081 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 09080 by DigSpace)
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That's right. I wanted to avoid large countries seeming to be successful just because they are large. So I've removed population as a variable in calculating success. China needs to be 59 times as successful as Australia to keep pace. If they don't, Australia is doing better. That's the point.

Your measure is actually much the same as mine. I think you'll find that China still needs to be 59 times as successful to keep pace with Australia. It's share of the global population is 59 times larger than Australia's, however you slice it.

The difference is that in my list, 50 countries are currently unlisted. So China is actually in 10th position out of 60 (my random cut-off). The actual worst performer of the largest 60 countries is very likely to be India. China was the weakest amongst the gold medal-winning countries to the end of day two. 50 countries have no gold. I haven't listed them. Over the course of the Olympics, there will be more participants.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Day Two - New leader **
By: DigSpace in ALEA
Mon, 30 Jul 12 10:51 PM 		Msg. 09080 of 54959

The vast difference in the denominators makes it unworkable for me. Almost any individual country overtakes China by winning a single gold.

China needs to take gold at a 59:1 ratio to keep pace with Australia.

Nothing normalizes the denominator.

A different approach is: percent of Golds taken versus percent of world population. On this AUS still does rather well, and China is observed to pull a respectable 146% of population weighted anticipated gold.

When assessing a population's recovery of a resource, the amount of the resource is critical. A stand alone scaler doesn't communicate much about the dynamic.

In this case China (about 19% of the world's people) is recovering about 28% of the available resource (Gold medals).

Where the others fall, particularly in lightly populated countries is statisical rubbish unitl the availble resource (Gold rewarded) becomes large enough for their puny population to be measured. Can't do stats on n=1.

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