« ALEA Home | Email msg. | Reply to msg. | Post new | Board info. Previous | Home | Next

Re: $2.4 dollars of debt buys you $1 of GDP

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Fri, 27 Jul 12 7:14 PM | 75 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix
Msg. 09058 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 09057 by faul)

Jump:
Jump to board:
Jump to msg. #

Hi doma,

1. your quote suggests federal debt is the only sort.

2. what do you think happens to total debt if federal debt is increasing while private debt is reducing?

3. federal debt affects potential lost gdp as well as gdp growth.

Here's an article you may wish to read:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/27/opinion/money-for-nothing.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

" So what is going on? The main answer is that this is what happens when you have a “deleveraging shock,” in which everyone is trying to pay down debt at the same time. Household borrowing has plunged; businesses are sitting on cash because there’s no reason to expand capacity when the sales aren’t there; and the result is that investors are all dressed up with nowhere to go, or rather no place to put their money. So they’re buying government debt, even at very low returns, for lack of alternatives. Moreover, by making money available so cheaply, they are in effect begging governments to issue more debt.

And governments should be granting their wish, not obsessing over short-term deficits.

Obligatory caveat: yes, we have a long-run budget problem, and we should be taking steps to address that problem, mainly by reining in health care costs. But it’s simply crazy to be laying off schoolteachers and canceling infrastructure projects at a time when investors are offering zero- or negative-interest financing.

You don’t even have to make a Keynesian argument about jobs to see that. All you have to do is note that when money is cheap, that’s a good time to invest. And both education and infrastructure are investments in America’s future; we’ll eventually pay a large and completely gratuitous price for the way they’re being savaged.

That said, you should be a Keynesian, too. The experience of the past few years — above all, the spectacular failure of austerity policies in Europe — has been a dramatic demonstration of Keynes’s basic point: slashing spending in a depressed economy depresses that economy further."


- - - - -
View Replies (1) »



» You can also:
- - - - -
The above is a reply to the following message:
$2.4 dollars of debt buys you $1 of GDP
By: faul
in ALEA
Fri, 27 Jul 12 6:30 PM
Msg. 09057 of 54959

........there's no solution apart from a debt jubilee!

"One thing however stands, and that is the trendline change in actual GDP compared to the change in debt used to "buy" said GDP. Which is why we present our favorite chart showing how much more total federal debt was added per quarter over the GDP. Bottom line: in Q2, the US added $274.3 billion in debt while adding $117.6 billion in GDP (from the revised data: Q1 GDP of $15,478 billion rising to just $15,595 billion in Q2). Probably what is more indicative, is that in Q2 the delta change between debt and GDP rose from 2.28x in Q1. But that too is largely noise and will be revised. What won't be revised is that over the past two years, the US has added 2.42x more debt than it has added GDP."


« ALEA Home | Email msg. | Reply to msg. | Post new | Board info. Previous | Home | Next