Just listened to the CC. Thought it was pretty good. Obviously they understand how important SAM renewal and the APPL deals are with the way they have cornered the market.
WS seems to be valuing IDCC at potential cash on hand at this point. With the 3K additional patents up for sale and using the INTC metric I'd expect another 600 million from them. Cash on hand now is at 525 million. Taking out the 175 million for the buyback and the 200 million for the debt and adding the 250 million from intel gets IDCC to 400 million net cash. If they sell the 3K patents for 600 million that would add about 400 million and bring IDCC to 800 million net cash. They seem to be buying back shares aggresively and if they use the buyback up by year end at current prices the share count would be under 40 million. Using 40 million shares IDCC would have $20 per share in cash. Currently were at $25 share price.
The big catalyst will be the ITC hearing. A win there and I think WS will start to value us a lot higher and licenees should start signing up. Fixed fee revenue is at 34 million per qtr and on 1/1/13 that will drop to 9 million per qtr. IMO its all up to the ITC case and we need a win to get IDCC revenues back up again. Im positive IDCC will win but I can see us in a holding pattern between 25-30 until somthing breaks one way or another. I hope they keep buying back shares aggresively up towards the ITC hearing.
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