By: Gillian Tett
This year, investors have been gobbling up US treasuries in a desperate effort to search for safety. But would they have done better to grab Australian sovereign debt or Singaporean bank bonds, as a shield against political incompetence in a fractious world?
If the wealth management arm of Merrill Lynch is to be believed, the answer could be “yes”. This month, the US broker is quietly circulating a memo which tells its affluent clients to reposition themselves — and their portfolios — for a fundamental geopolitical shift.
During much of the late 20th century, the broker says, the world was shaped by American-dominated institutions, such as the Group of Seven wealthiest nations. But during the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008, it became clear western dominance was crumbling, and the focus moved from the G7 to the G20, which includes emerging markets such as China.
But now the G20 is looking impotent too; thus the world is trapped in a scary limbo. China and the other emerging powers are wary of taking a leadership role, but the west is declining. The net result then, is that nobody is in charge; it is an unstable “G-zero” world, to use the phrase posited by Ian Bremmer, the political consultant.
Merrill Lynch is trying to tell its clients how to respond (other than panicking and burying gold in the ground). It suggests, for example, investors should put money into companies, not governments, since the former are more reliable, transparent and growth-orientated. It calls for a rethink of the traditional binary distinction between “developed” and “emerging markets” countries; the latter includes some countries (such as Ghana and Indonesia) which are likely to flourish for structural reasons, but others which are
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48129124
Realist - Everybody in America is soft, and hates conflict. The cure for this, both in politics and social life, is the same -- hardihood. Give them raw truth.
| 