perhaps the best leading indicator, on this the president is vulnerable ... he teeters in the mid 40s, the high 40s being the reelection number. Basically, one wants to beat approval of 48 to win reelection. The trailing average for June is 47.7
It increasingly looks like Ohio is the state that will decide (although certainly if Obama carries Florida Romney is is deep shit).
The great lake states (WI, MI, OH) plus NH and any one of IA, NV, CO amd Obama wins.
FL and OH alone, and then its over, Obama wins.
Obama has never been behind in NV, CO and NH. Give him those three and FL, and he is at 269 with any one of IA, WI, MI, OH, VA, NC, MO putting him over.
While MO and NC are on lists as toss-ups, I think that is peyote talkin, and those go to the Gov.
IA is remarkable, I will never get that state, WI has the whole Walker thing, but has been splitting federal vs state for some time.
FL, MI, OH, those be the ones .. although obviously if VA (specifically northern VA) hands VA to Obama, then once again, Romney is in deep shit.
The nail biter result is this: Romney carries FL, VA, MI, NC, IA, MO, ... and lands on 270 (Obama the rest of the swings for 268 )
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