Forum Home | Log in | Signup | My Page | Rules | FAQ | Boards | Members | Search
« ALEA Home | Email msg. | Reply to msg. | Post new | Board info. Previous | Home | Next

Re: Carrot officially deployed

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Wed, 20 Jun 12 8:55 PM | 69 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 08509 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 08508 by DigSpace)
Jump:
Jump to board:
Jump to msg. #

Hi dig,

well i come back to the cash flow as i don't think building from the ground up is possible if the argument is that it is an isolated instance.

i think the numbers they are running must be much stronger than a 15% increment on q1.

let's say the cash outflows run around $4-4.5m per month. then assuming they are very close to the zero-bound for cash, i am assuming the atm usage is reflective of minimal cash demands. or at least bears a resemblance to it.

so i think i am seeing a quarter which looks closer to maybe $9.5-10m.

of course, now we know that wave is planning further dilution, who knows. these guys are too sloppy for words with shareholder capital. expanding the company without any demand signals. pah!

» You can also:
- - - - -
The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Carrot officially deployed
By: DigSpace in ALEA
Wed, 20 Jun 12 8:38 PM 		Msg. 08508 of 54959

I agree, what I am trying to do is define "genuine strength".

I think we both appreciate more-better-happy-good, but i suspect that busting out some calipers every once in a while is ok too.

It seems to me, even after culling BASF, GM and friends from Q4 to Q1, another $1m went up in smoke.

I think the smoke is ERAS has been generally over interpreted, and that Dell core revs has been under interpreted, and that the NewDellDeal was much more catastrophic than and wetness in Thailand can hope to explain.

Given that, I think the Q1 numbers have to be treated as the new baseline, not as a blip, but as the reality of shaving 25 cents off Dell royalties. It indicates that Wave is and only has been because of the Dell deal. This was not well planed for, forecast, notified, or handled. Patently botched. Tack n some SFND non-cash items and it makes for some miserable looking books (not that I do books or anything, but I don't think I need to be a professional in this instance).

So given that, given it is not just some SMB weakness, that a serious erosion of Dell royalties underpins Q1 ....

what defines "genuine strength"?

Services were about 0.3 in Q1, leaving the $6.6m as the base, and I am reading BASF as mostly/essentially recognized in 2012 as they have been saying in their various reports.

So, of the $6.6m about $0.6m is BP and maintenance.

Thy did about $6m in business in Q1. Somewhere I think that is what they claimed in new billings as well.

So, what is "genuine strength" off that?

5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 30% ????

As Q1 had 324k in services (this is where the samsung numbers are getting buried) I'm expecting that to move towards say 500k (the Army Sole etc). That's peanuts.

It the past Wave has observed QtoQ results that when the rest is stripped out seems like the best they have done is around 13%. So, is 15% "genuine strength"?

20% growth to me drops out as Q2 revs of $8.3m (600k BP+other maint, 500k services, 20% growth on 6m base).

So, is a reported 8.3m revs for Q2 "genuine strength"??

« ALEA Home | Email msg. | Reply to msg. | Post new | Board info. Previous | Home | Next