yup, any decent mil thingy closes the 35 to 50.
Wave now has significant history to push back against. They struggled for eons and then hit a stretch of c.f.b.e. only to have that completely fall apart. Their SP was treated well for achieving c.f.b.e., but the next time it will not be as generous.
C.f.b.e. is seen as a stepping stone to profitability but durably bouncing int and out of that status tarnishes the luster of it as a milestone.
I see Wave as a three tier equity:
1. they can't even pay their bills without equity (SP 0.8-1.2)
2. they can pay their bills but aren't making a GAAP_G/L dime (SP 2-3)
3. they record a profit (SP ?)
Had their progress been more uniform and less of the one step forward two steps back and had their statements been more reliable, the market would be more receptive.
Neither is the case.
I expect 2012 to move back towards SP 2-3. Obviously if *mil comes through with north of $10m, folks may reconsider, and allow the more robust 6-10x sales valuations it has historically enjoyed.
My lowball revs $35-40m = SP 2-3
A decent *.mil taking that to $50-55m = SP 3-5 (PS 6-10x).
The two 8-10m deals not happening? ugh. .3-.6
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