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Msg. 08500 of 54959 |
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BP and BASF were both well dangled carrots that eventually translated into business. The company has been less forthcoming on carrots since BP, I think they get tired of getting kicked around in consecutive CCs with the 'what's the deal with that deal ... you're late' sentiment and they hoped to actually just ink a couple deals without all the lead up and anticipation and ultimately having it come across has a failure for being slow as opposed to being a success for happening at all. But here they are, there's the ATM, and the train wreck of Q1 numbers ... so after some consideration they decided to go public: 2 deals worth $8-10m, eta Q3. There you have it. The rest is more of the same ... WEM pilots, a gov mandate or not, some sort of scrambled thingy, and so on ... I'm not dismissing these things, but these things are always there. Loose "pipeline" stuff has always been crack-pipe stuff ... but when a finite number is connected to a finite number in a finite time frame (2 deals, $8-10m, Q3ish) these things happen ... late, but they happen. That, I believe, you can take to the bank (perhaps a post-dated check). On the basis of those I am willing to pencil in $4m NewBigDeal Q3, and $4m NewBigDeal Q4. That keeps the doors open, and turns the ATM off. On my napkin I only have $3m of that booking this year, so the G/L still looks awful, and on doing anything about that these potential pilot WEMmy things have to produce. I could see, e.g., in the absence of WEMmy things and such, FY $35-40m, on $60m exps for a loss of $20-25m all on more or less cash flow b.e.(with the $6m of equity financing included).
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