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Re: Quick est. of Q2 new billings required*

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Mon, 04 Jun 12 7:06 PM | 68 view(s)
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Msg. 08309 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 08307 by Cactus Flower)

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Agreed Q1 can't explain much of anything regarding e.g current ATM use.

I was more or less going exp 15.2, noncash 1.8, equity 3 (the Q isn't over) and letting current cash dwindle.

Pretty much puts our notions within the same PostCode. I had higher noncash and more equity and hit a lower number.

Yours, FWIW, would essentially reflect a return to Q4 billings, but as Q4 had the 1.7 BP, if one simply returns to non-BP of 9.8 Q4 billings, then is seems that with the above (3m ATM, 1.8m noncash, 2.2m startingcash) that that is adequate to explain the lack of totally massive ATM usage.

It puts Q1 in the blip category. I cannot reconcile current apparent ATM usage without putting Q1 in the blip category.

on tkc's 60day vs 30day SaC, perhaps SFND was giving 60, and on merger ... well, honoring the old SaC would likely be the way to go for a bit. Once you do it with some and the word gets around ... next thing you know you are on 60d SaC, or even if the word doesn't get around but you have sales people moving around and they make some verbal statements ... then its done, one need stand by those statements.

regardless of AR % of newbill that tkc mentioned, to me it is just that Wave squeezed coin out of AR Q4 to Q1, and went sideways or borrowed a dime out of AP over same.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Quick est. of Q2 new billings required**
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Mon, 04 Jun 12 6:49 PM
Msg. 08307 of 54959

Hi dig,

Lol.

Unlike tkc, whose splendid spaghetti spits out a number based on lots of clever estimates, I'm just working back from the cash needs to derive a number.

Q2 costs, $15m, say. Non-cash cost, $1-1.5m, say. Cash raised, $2m, say. My $11.5-12m billings number derives from that. If I allow a lower cash balance then I can reduce the billings a wee bit further. If I say management expense was deferred I can reduce it a bit more. But zero cash is my lower bound.

I don't think Q1 makes a useful foundation for guesses about Q2, on grounds that the Q2 cash requirements clearly seem not to be following the precedents one would have expected if Q2 resembled Q1.


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