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Re: Quick est. of Q2 new billings required*

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Mon, 04 Jun 12 6:20 PM | 82 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 08302 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 08301 by tkc)
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Hi tkc,

I was guessing billings of $11.5-12m for Q2 myself. But I have the sales team functioning as I would have expected them to, and I am assuming some of the lost orders in Q1 were merely deferred, to create an SME bulge in Q2.

This makes Q1 an aberration, so take with a grain of salt.

Also bear in mind that a major order in June makes this guess redundant.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Quick est. of Q2 new billings required*
By: tkc in ALEA
Mon, 04 Jun 12 6:07 PM 		Msg. 08301 of 54959

to avoid add'l ATM use in the Q. Basic assumptions: 1) SG&A + R&D will decrease to $13.8M (no cash bonuses in Q2). 2) No change in A/P. 3)60% of new business will be rec'd in the Q, 40% will be A/R. 4) Gross margins will be 94% 5) $1.57M was rec'd via ATM on 4/11 and there has been no more.

$2.256M (COH, EOQ1) + 4.35 (A/R, EOQ1) + 1.57 (ATM) = $8.176M. Less 13.8 (SG&A + R&D) = 5.624 divided by 94% margins = $6M cash needed from Q2 new billings. If 60% of new billings is rec'd during the Q - Total new billings required is $10M. It is doable.

EDIT: didn't consider non cash expenses such as good will amortization, depreciation, share based comp. thus it new business req will be less.

Note: the $1.57M via ATM is from recollection, thus not sure it is correct. This was quick and loaded w/ assumptions so feel free to point out errors.

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