Hi doma,
What is going on is surely not so unexpected.
The stimulus was working. The stimulus has been petering out. The Republicans resisted extending the stimulus. We are now in the scenario the neo-Keynesians predicted. The recovery is losing steam.
For myself, I hoped that the private sector would commit to the recovery. They have not done so in the volumes I expected. So the momentum is slipping away.
I don't doubt the figures when they support me. I don't doubt them when they go against what I would have them do. This is a reflection of the decisions taken by politicians.