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Msg. 07901 of 54959 |
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"This board failed. And this is not monday morning QBing, ... my cat, BullDolphins cat, alea, tour, tkc, weby, hot dog vendors, awk, 24601, cslewis, ... everybody saw the doughnut hole." Hi dig, I did not foresee the doughnut hole. I said the company was either (i) lunatic to expand its costs structure the way it was doing or (ii) it saw demand in the pipeline. I guessed (ii). More fool me. I wrote off the doughnut hole (option (i)) in the middle of 2011 because I didn't think anyone was that dumb. I was encouraged when the CEO said they were now much better at predicting demand in Q3,11. I thought my idea was bound to be correct. They can predict demand, I thought. No way there's a doughnut hole coming my way. There's a reason for the hiring. It's called growth. Q4 finished with the BP deal clearly not enough to justify the expansion. But even then, I thought, they must have something in that pipeline. He keeps talking about how it is expanding. I'm only expecting one major deal here. He probably has several slated for signature in the next month or two. Right up until the ATM, I was convinced they must have a major deal on the cusp. Then the hole happened. And even since the ATM, no sign of that deal that just slipped past the deadline. It's May now. The putative deal was an illusion. They were in the position to know that. And yet they did nothing until the last moment. My judgement about their skills makes me a dummy too. I woefully misjudged the prudence of their management. I am bound to withdraw. My ability to say sensible things depends upon my sense that they will act in the same way as best as they can in a foreseeable timeframe. A CEO who is this bad at forecasting and upon whom the expansion decision depended shouldn't be responsible for the job of making top level decisions. I think that means Wave needs a different person in charge of key executive decisions. I mean, for Gawd's sake, look at this post: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=64253962 He expected accelerating expansion from a 92% rate. Major contracts accrue over a year rather than quarterly, so Thailand is not a great excuse. What actually happened? When GM upfront revenue died, there was nothing to replace it in spite of a year of trying. The substantial increase in demand SS predicted was largely absent. At best we saw incremental rates of growth. And the Q1 company only result year over year (which precedes the SHM) saw a significant decline. Wow! A great CEO doesn't just have a telescope. He has a microscope also. |
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