Oh and by the way, Wave had a year in which to replace the GM revenue source.
You can't blame it on Thailand. The failure to find a major purchaser was a 12 month thing, with the upfront income spread across the next 12 months.
So there's a problem with the flow of major deals.
The additional problem here is that Wave has been unable to project demand on all scales. In Q3,11 it said it was getting better at it. In Q1,12, Wave's revenues collapsed while its cost structure was maintained.
In the Q4 conference call, SS indicated that an expectation of $60m+ in revenue was not unreasonable. This new number changed to $50m+ within a few weeks. And the change was previewed for shareholder consumption via the information crack pipe.
Funny thing is, I suggested Wave was using something like $50m for its internal 2012 revenue number after the release of the Q4 earnings together with the 2011 financial statements. I changed my mind partly because the CEO said $60m+ was the bottom-up sales forecast. Alas.
These are the kinds of things which tell you that Wave's forecasting is a complete mess. How can anyone make good management decisions if it is clueless about its own marketplace? How can an investor make sensible choices if the management of the company has no idea and is inconsistent?
A revenue maximising strategy is a difficult thing to deliver if the company lacks a cash contingency fund. It is a very poor strategy if the company cannot forecast. Someone is responsible for adopting that model without having the tools or the resources to pursue it.
At some point, you lose the support of everyone except the people who will never change their minds.
One thing that is for sure. You don't need shorts to assault the company to get a share price like this. All you need is the kind of performance Wave is providing, while vastly overpaying its top level people relative to the company's growth rate and bottom line.
At this point, in spite of wishing that there was something to cling onto to make me feel that a defence of Wave's operational management and of its BoD was conceivable, I cannot bring myself to do so given the slate of facts.
Can the company find someone to speak for them? This is the tragedy. There's almost no one willing to do so anymore. Even snackman felt he was lied to.
I guess only the visionaries will persevere in their support. It's easier when you don't care so much about the local planet and can train your telescope on distant galaxies.
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