http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/
With falling global crude oil prices over the past month, EIA has lowered the average regular gasoline retail price forecast for the current April-through-September summer driving season to $3.79 per gallon, 16 cents per gallon below the level in the previous Outlook. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.71 per gallon in 2012 and $3.67 per gallon in 2013, compared with $3.53 per gallon in 2011. The September 2012 New York Harbor Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB) futures contract averaged $2.99 per gallon for the five trading days ending May 3. Based on the market value of futures and options contracts, there is a 22 percent probability that the RBOB contract price at expiration will exceed $3.30 per gallon, consistent with an average regular-grade gasoline retail price exceeding $4.00 per gallon in September.
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