Shocking????????????????????? LOL
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/02/2012 08:31 -0400
BLS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
China
Gross Domestic Product
Renaissance
Unemployment
Unemployment Claims
Update: Goldman commentary which mirrors ours:
The ADP estimate of private employment growth was +119k for April, below the consensus expectation for a 170k gain (growth in February and March was also revised down slightly). As with the official BLS count of employment, we believe that a “payback” from warm weather earlier in the year could explain some of the slowing in the ADP measure in both March and April.
Results from the ADP report were mixed across industries. Employment at goods producing firms declined by 4k, with declines of 5k in both manufacturing and construction employment. The decline in manufacturing employment looks at odds with other information on the sector, such as yesterday’s ISM report. The drop in construction employment may be partly weather-related. Service sector employment rose by +123k, down from +158k in March and +184k in February.
Those hoping Goldman's NFP forecast of 125,000, well below consensus, is wrong, may have to reassess their thesis following the just released ADP number which came as a big disappointment to consensus of 170,000, instead printing at only +119,000, to 110,590. (The previous improvement was also downward revised from +209K to +201K). This was the lowest sequential change since September 2011, and confirms once again, the declining trends last seen in... 2011. It was also the biggest miss in 11 months. Luckily, as the scatterplot below shows, ADP is completely meaningless when predicting NFP so our gut reaction would be to expect a beat in NFP based on this print considering the whole Schrodinger economy and what not (see China). However, on an apples to apples basis, one thing is certain: record warm winter payback is a bitch. And finally, that whole Obama export renaissance is not doing all too hot: goods producing sector: -4,000 in April, while manufacturing jobs declined by -5,000. But, but, the soaring ISM..... oh forget it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/adp-misses-big-prints-lowest-increase-september-manufacturing-jobs-post-shocking-decline?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
Realist - Everybody in America is soft, and hates conflict. The cure for this, both in politics and social life, is the same -- hardihood. Give them raw truth.
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