Hi nxt,
In the end, it turns out they can bore an investor to death: perhaps that is the ultimate game of marbles. But I am not calling time on their enterprise. I kinda think it will go on forever even if it doesn't succeed, with everyone - long and short - trapped in some endless limbo.
For the traders, it is probably still an exciting place. I just have had enough of the conversation for the moment.
It was this post, I think, and the other person was player.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=63670728
Hi player,
Beware, because when you bring time into the discussion we are entering the realm of cosmic philosophy rather than chess!
Here's a simple question: If I set a target for Wave's stock price for the next year, and it fails to reach my target, should I sell my stock because that has happened? Does time run out in the way you describe it?
The answer is no.
I can look backwards at Wave's progress and I see that much time has elapsed. I concede this point entirely. Plenty of sunk costs and regrets. But sunk costs and regrets aren't an investment strategy.
We don't get to rerun the past. We cannot invest or avoid having invested in yesterday.
The important viewpoint for an investor at any given moment is how do they maximise their money in the future. Not just at this moment, but in all future moments where the same decision gets taken.
Today, I think: How can I maximise my return over the timeframe that interests me?
Tomorrow, I think the same thought once again.
And on and on.
So the clock in this game runs a little differently from the one you describe. It has an infinite number of beginnings, but absent bankruptcy, it has no end. From each of these beginnings, we make judgements about the future. Those judgements may be right and they may be wrong. But every day, the clock is set afresh.
Bound by time's arrow only to consider the future, and never to reach it, we are tethered to probability rather than fixed timelines.
Hence my interest is in Wave's positioning in the market today and how I believe that positioning influences the company's ability to deliver a return going forwards. I will start over again and think the same thought tomorrow.
One caveat - It may be that an individual investor will run out of time. That they need to cash out. And it may be that they will not make money on their investment. This is the risk of investing in uncertainty. For that person, the game is over, the clock has stopped. There is no future decision to be made. And Wave's positioning does not matter at all. That person is no longer a player in Wave's chess game.
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