I bolded one clause below and not the other because "the other" is just too unrealistic.
Drunks - and that's what we've become - do not decide en masse that they've learned their lesson and won't drink any more. Oh, the ocasional one does. (And that occasional one would be ME - but I think most of you would agree that I'm pretty far from the norm.) They're aberrations. What nearly all the others must do is to hit rock bottom... and then either die or change their ways.
But they have to hit rock bottom first.
April 24, 2012
Is gold still cheap?
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor
We addressed the above question last year and arrived at the answer: no, gold left bargain territory long ago. We remain bullish on gold not because we think gold is still cheap, but because we expect it to get a lot more expensive.
This isn't a "greater fool" game that we are playing, in that our belief that gold will become a lot more expensive over the years ahead isn't based on the expectation that people will be silly enough to pay a much higher valuation in the future for an asset that is already over-valued today. It is, instead, a position based on the observation that the world's most important central banks and governments remain committed to a course that ends in catastrophe for their economies and currencies. To put it another way, gold may well be expensive relative to the current economic backdrop, but it is cheap relative to what the economic backdrop will be 5 years from now if the current policy course is maintained. And at this stage there are no signs that the current policy course will not be maintained.
.
.
.
The gold bull market is being driven by the vicious cycle whereby bad policy begets economic weakness, which provides the excuse for more bad policy. It won't end until there is an economic and monetary catastrophe or there is widespread understanding of the root of the problem, because one or the other will have to happen before a major constructive political change will be possible. Hopefully the latter will happen first, because living through the former wouldn't be fun even for those who had taken all the right protective measures.
Full article: http://news.goldseek.com/SpeculativeInvestor/1335276000.php
Gold is $1,581/oz today. When it hits $2,000, it will be up 26.5%. Let's see how long that takes. - De 3/11/2013 - ANSWER: 7 Years, 5 Months
| 