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Re: Hey NSA...edt Q2?Q3?Q4? edt again

By: tkc in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Thu, 12 Apr 12 2:50 AM | 70 view(s)
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Msg. 07297 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 07296 by Cactus Flower)

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Yes CF agree almost in entirety. The exception is "I guess he just didn't want to believe that he was going to need to dilute again." I don't think he thinks about that as he just gets more low priced options. He really has nothing at risk, except possibly dilution of his own shares acquired through the ESOP. The good news is Orda and I will be happy as I doubt Mgmt has any options they can exercise and sell profitably at these share prices.




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Hey NSA...edt Q2?Q3?Q4? edt again
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Thu, 12 Apr 12 2:13 AM
Msg. 07296 of 54959

Hi tkc,

Well I think they said they need at least $2m and I thought that might just be adequate on top of the $3.3m they have received.

I don't think they have exceeded the $2m yet, but these are awful prices to sell at in volume and that speaks of financial necessity.

To me, this also implies weak forecasting. I think the weak forecasting isn't on the cost side of the ledger. That is fairly predictable. So this means the sales forecasting remains optimistic.

Once again, I think this comes back to the personality of the CEO rather than the CFO. I think he just floats a little bit above reality. And this is expressed in the unsafe harbour, in the scale of his ambitions, in his justifications of the board members' failure to purchase stock and his own sales, in his claims about Europe and now in his sales hiring frenzy.

This is hope. Not a virtue and not a vice. But a fickle kind of mistress. You can't run a company on despair. But at least you can apply a little scepticism to your expectations and plan accordingly. I guess he just didn't want to believe that he was going to need to dilute again.


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