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Re: Hey NSA...edt Q2?Q3?Q4? edt again

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Wed, 11 Apr 12 8:36 PM | 107 view(s)
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Msg. 07286 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 07283 by DigSpace)

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Hi dig,

Interesting post. My 10k-based cash flow thesis converges on Q2/3 as well. So in that uncertain, hesitant-steps kind of way when talking about Wave, I think we are all in agreement on Wave's own expectations, timing-wise, within a margin of error of, say, 3 months or so that there's something big in the pipeline this summer.

The question is how painful the gap between now and then will be. Give them a quick order for $5m and all is well with the world.

It isn't worth lowering the optimismometer for, as that is more of a long term measure.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Hey NSA...edt Q2?Q3?Q4? edt again
By: DigSpace
in ALEA
Wed, 11 Apr 12 7:56 PM
Msg. 07283 of 54959

Somewhere in the CC SKS stated a trial wrapping up end of summer. Somewhere in the 10k (which I have only skimmed) a discussing of cash/rev picture I believe detailed DoD consulting deals, some 1.5m that wrapped up Feb2011 and another some 1.5m (that slipped under my radar) of which some 600kish is delivered, and the rest to wrap up "August 2012". So some very blah blah in the CC 'towards the end of summer' and quite simply "August 2012" in the 10k. Both of those point to the same slot to me, Aug/Sept. Against that there is the whisper wire, May/June. My experience is the statements (August 2012) are usually off in that they are too early, and that the whisperwire is another step off from that (in the same direction).

I think they need an enterprise customer before DoD.

Here: prepared remarks for CC:

SKS>> "We have delivered and are in the middle of a pilot phase with a pilot with the Defense Department of our server that implements. It’s called Wave Endpoint Monitor. It’s the server that implements the NIST 800-155 capabilities so that every machine before it’s connected to any service can be validated that it has the right BIOS integrity within the platform. Those pilots are going very well. We’ve learned a tremendous amount over the course of the last few months in their implementation. And we expect that piloting process to come to conclusion during the course of the summer."

which is not the same as this from Q&A:

SKS>>: "Yeah, so I have – we have two active pilots underway. And I am busily touring as many people through those pilots. One of them is within the DoD space and in many aspects I would like to see if I can avoid the duplication of that level of pilot. And instead use it as a reference so that those folks, because they can have access to the data, would take the next stage of expansion. And we are in the midst of that conversation.

I would say, overall, BIOS integrity has been a very, very positive reception so far. And I would say the same thing that I’d say to all my customers in the space, it’s time for the economy of BIOS integrity to start which means people need to start writing some checks. Because right now I have a very nice pilot going underway, the momentum is underway, we’re going to want to see some progress in Q2 or early Q3 timeframe to show that that really has significant volume customers executing and deploying, before we can say the whole thing was really a success, right. So if you...

caller>>: Do you think there could there be as many as 10 or more WEM sales during 2012?

SKS>>: Absolutely."

me>>As two pilots are spoken of, perhaps there is some fruit in the Q2 Q3 as spoken towards in Q&A and consistent with the whisper-wire. Who knows.


... and here's the 10k blurb (page 36):

>>" Services revenue, consisting primarily of non-recurring government contracts, decreased by $276,266 to $1,038,497 during 2011 as compared to 2010. Services revenue earned during 2011 was from two fixed-price modifications to a contract awarded by the United States Department of Defense. Work on the first $1,600,000 fixed-price modification was completed during mid-February 2011, while work on the second $1,507,120 fixed-price modification began in late August 2011 and is expected to be completed by no later than August 2012. Approximately $983,000 of this second fixed-price modification will be earned as the result of qualifying Wave software on new PC and SED models and with new PC OEM and SED partners. Fees will be earned for each qualifying model and/or partner after being verified by the Department of Defense. $585,000 of these fees have been earned and approved by the Department of Defense during the year ended December 31, 2011. This component of revenue will increase the gross margin for this second fixed-price modification as compared to previous contract modifications. Services revenue earned during 2010 was from the initial $1,600,000 fixed-price modification."


me>> services were 1.038m for 2011. The balance presumably is Samsung and perhaps Micron. the tone of the Samsung PR indicates some servs revs IMO, and seeing that products were demoed, I'm thinking they are at least supporting costs. The curious thing is COSservs was very low Q3 and Q4.

So it looks like there are "two pilots going on" and some optimism for Q2/Q3 boundary, with some statemtns indicating that last of those pilot should wrap by August and onto this is the whole Army FBCB2 thing which sounds like customizing the install for the DRS ruggedized platform that they put in things like Humvees, which supposedly rolls in Feb/Mar ... except SKS language was rather week and distant on that with a quick head-fake towards drones.


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