I think your number is very high.
Didn't we just learn your initial cash estimate had a bug in it due to the error? To get the net cash outflow (before asset changes) in Q4 you deduct $3m or so from the quarterly loss.
So a pari passu starting point suggests net cash outflows of around $1.8m in Q4 ($4.8m - 1.0m - 0.6m - 1.4m).
Lose $1.2m from Dell inflows (due to Thailand and bundling changes), lose SMA inflows of net $1/2m due to Thailand, lose BP inflows of $1.7m and I'm thinking of a net outflow, before asset changes, of $5.2m.
Whereas they received $3.3m. So I have them down $1.9m in Q1, cashwise - and before asset changes. $3.4m less $1.9m is $1.5m.
They say they need another $2m. Makes sense if they think they have something big at the beginning of Q3.
Of course, the really crazy variable is the asset balances. If the AR hadn't increased by so much last quarter, Wave's cash would have fallen within my expectations (3.4m + 2.7m = 6m). AR was the one thing I thought would not go up by much, given the cash position. How wrong I was.
What goes up may well come down, of course. Those AR items were doubtless mostly received in Q1. So there's a little room for hope that cash ended Q1 above $2m, and maybe as high as $3m.
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