my suspicion is that we may see an enterprise-consumer split again.
In most of the posts I have seen on mobile, the argument is partly carried by inference. Inference is dangerous.
The influence of MNOs is always brushed aside by folks who hope that Wave is on the cusp of something awesome in mobile. I keep hoping I'll see a counter-argument which contradicts the strong MNO view based on something substantial. In the absence of that, I'm assuming that the MNOs still control handset distribution and through distribution, they also exercise control over handset architecture in the consumer marketplace.
The idea that the mobile world operates in unison as opposed to a knot of competing influences is hard to maintain.
MS doesn't tell the MNOs which phones they must offer their customers. The MNOs act in their own interests.
The MNOs care a great deal about controlling the revenue flow from opportunities within their network. They don't wish to operate as bitpipes.
In the NFC market, they seem to have conceded that they must provide an interface with the credit card companies' networks. The credit card companies are happy about that because they can toll the value of transactions, in the usual way.
I expect movement over handset architecture only where users have power in negotiations with service providers. That is to say, in the enterprise market - in which there's a strong case to make that a third proprietary network should be permitted to interface with individual phones. This is where MTM fits in, in my view.
I have no idea why 4321 infers from an MS WOA deal that Google and Apple will conform because they won't allow MS to say its solution is more secure. We know from experience how that claim is undermined. The software solution providers claim their solution is also secure. The number of people who know any better is vanishingly small.
Risk is that the enthusiasts lead the gullible into wild-eyed optimism again. Populism makes populists popular. Personally, I don't enjoy the model of unrestrained hope and its usual corollary: subsequent misery. I think folks who employ that model ought to consider its consequences.
In my version of the future, someone is about to buy RIM. If I was Dell, I'd be covetous. If I was MS, I'd also be covetous.
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