Just checking.
If so, wondering if it was a result of the likelihood of at least two quarters of poor results immediately ahead - at least as suggested by the dilution in Q1 and expectation of further dilution in Q2.
Subsequent to my initial $50-55m rationalisation, I've realised I was caught (as I often am) by the accruals-cash accounting conversion. The cash demand does not necessarily spread evenly across the year. The $50-55m represents the minimum end of the range, but not the maximum.
I'm guessing that the dilution expectation suggests that Wave probably is not expecting a major deal before mid-Q2 at the earliest, and possibly not before the end of Q2 ($2m representing an estimate of the cash deficiency either in part or in full for Q2, but likely not for significantly more than a quarter).
But the restriction of the minimal requirement to $2m suggests that they have substantial hopes of a deal by, at the latest, early in Q3. So early, that is, that the announcement would come significantly in advance of the announcement of Q2 results. So Q2 results will seem historically insignificant when they are announced.
So for what it is worth, which in Canada is nothing, here's my my penn'orth: the slog goes back on the shelf within 3 months. I was looking for when SMAs would arc northwards and that seemed to begin in Q3, 11. I'm thinking a major order between May and early July, and judging by the commentary from the unsafe harbour re $60m for the year (so pinch of salt) that order is in the $15-30m range, depending on how negative one wishes to be about everything else.
Of the $15-30m, I'm assuming half is booked in 2012, meaning Wave expects to garner between $45m and $52 1/2m from other sources during the current year.
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