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Re: Wave 10k 2011 - cash-related commentary and revised 2012 income expectation** 

By: tkc in ALEA | Recommend this post (2)
Sat, 07 Apr 12 12:09 AM | 92 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 07235 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 07231 by Cactus Flower)
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Okay and thx. I've got to change everything as my Dell rev guess was prior to the 25% decrease from bundling. That will be down $1.2M. So back to my figures. Also re SEDs: STX on 2/17/11 said they had sold 1M= SEDs thru '10 and they had doubled 3 yrs. in a row. Back of napkin math got me to ~550K STX SEDs in '10. So I suspect 1M in '11 even w/ the flooding. Trending up a little to 2.5M this year and ramping. No way to guess Wave $ (some STX, some Dell, and some other OEMs)other than to think they should at least double. Will Dell's SED sales be effected by the contact changes? Higher I hope


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Wave 10k 2011 - cash-related commentary and revised 2012 income expectation***
By: Cactus Flower in ALEA
Fri, 06 Apr 12 11:18 PM 		Msg. 07231 of 54959

Hi tkc,

The $2 1/2m's an estimate.

To my level of approximation, Q4,11 numbers showed:

Depreciation was $0.6m

Stock-based compensation was $1.4m

So that makes $2.0m.

I think it is prudent to allow an upside to that (eg due to increases in staff as the company grows), so $2 1/2m meets that criterion.

The extraordinary loss was not excluded from the EBITDAS calculation, and EBITDAS is not a proxy for a cash measure in this case. EBITDAS is net income less interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and stock-based compensation.

If you exclude the one-off error, you end up with an EBITDASE loss of $1.8m.

That's the basis of my approximation of $2m per quarter cash burn rate before balance sheet adjustments. On the other hand, the BP deal is flattering if there is no equivalent inflow in any particular quarter. Maybe I should use $3.5m in the absence of a major deal. Then there's the new Dell contract variable with its probably negative immediate effect. But then the outflow number will also contract as SMA volumes increase.

Does this change your expectations of Q1,12?

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