Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/31/2012 12:47 -0400
Bond
Dennis Gartman
Gross Domestic Product
Japan
Mean Reversion
Peter Oppenheimer
Risk Premium
Ten days ago, Goldman's Peter Oppenheimer published the "Long Good Buy, The Case For Equities", a big research piece, full of pretty charts and witty bullets, which actively urged the rotation out of bonds and into stocks, yet not only marked the peak of the market so far, but drew ridicule even from the likes of CNBC. More importantly, it has generated a plethora of questions from the muppets (aka Goldman clients) themselves, who are wondering how Goldman can be both uber bullish, and yet still have a 1250 S&P 2012 YE price target, as per the other strategist, David Kostin ("We expect the S&P 500 will trade at 1325 by mid-year (-5.6%) and 1250 in 12 months (-10.9%)."), or said otherwise, just how is it that Goldman is having its cake and eating it too? Below is David Kostin's attempt to justify how the firm can pull a Dennis Gartman (and virtually any other newsletter and book seller - after all what better way to say one was right than to have all bases covered) be both bearish and bullish at the same time.
From Goldman's US Weekly Kickstart
Last week, Peter Oppenheimer and our European Portfolio Strategy team published "The Long Good Buy; the Case for Equities" in which they conclude equities are attractive for three reasons: (1) Periods of poor real returns in equities tend to be followed by periods of significantly higher returns; (2) equity valuation appears low versus bonds; and (3) an elevated equity risk premium (ERP) supports a long-term positive view for stocks.
We agree with the long-term thesis. Investors willing to position for a normalized growth and risk environment over the next decade should interpret high ERP and low implied growth as an investment opportunity.
However, path matters and our price targets reflect short-term tactical risks. We believe equity valuation will remain below average over the next year due to stagnant economic growth and high uncertainty. Both views can comfortably co-exist in the context of different investment horizons.
S&P 500 currently trades above fair value on a variety of
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/muppets-are-confused-how-goldman-both-bullish-and-bearish-stocks-same-time?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
Realist - Everybody in America is soft, and hates conflict. The cure for this, both in politics and social life, is the same -- hardihood. Give them raw truth.
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