Wow, that's a rosy forecast!
Unemployment May Drop to 6% by Mid-2013, N.Y. Fed Study Finds
By Carlos Torres - Mar 28, 2012 11:14 AM ET
The jobless rate in the U.S. could drop to as low as 6 percent by the first half of 2013, a bigger decrease than most economists currently project, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The relationship between the number of Americans newly unemployed and those recently finding work indicates joblessness will continue to decline, according to economist Aysegul Sahin. The jobless rate held at a three-year low of 8.3 percent last month after falling by 0.8 percentage point in the year ended January, according to figures from the Labor Department.
“Simulations based on historical patterns suggest that the fall in the unemployment rate could be quicker than many forecasters predict,” Sahin wrote in a note on the bank’s Liberty Street Economics blog co-written by research associate Christina Patterson.
more:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-28/unemployment-may-drop-to-6-by-mid-2013-n-y-fed-study-finds.html
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