Alea, a few points
first, while I have always considered sharecomp a big deal at Wave, I have never pointedly tabeled it in, I guess I should back it out of SGA e.g., hence my cash end of Q guesses are generally low. While many look to the broadly observed non-GAAP EBITA metric, Wave adds the S, 'cause the S for them and their size is a big deal ... but it is not cash-flow.
second, Q4 and Q1 were soft last year, and I was all myopic on QtoQ lately and not doing any sort of seasonal thing (with a sample size of 1, not easy)
third, I have never been in the 'if you build it they will come' notions regarding staff increases that so many placed hope in. I'm a 'if you don't build it they won't come, so build it, and hope they come' but the timing of these things is the job of mgmnt, and on this there is no demonstrated ability.
fourth, I have SMB/bundling contracting slightly in Q4 (as it did Q4 and Q1 last year), and that is based on an assumption of booking $145k of BP.
fifth, I've lost track of what to expect for maintenance, Q1 will be the first real start of the maintenance line-item. In any event, it looks almost inescapable for Q1 fully consolidated top-line contraction, last observed in Q3'09. I mean, they could squeak in a sideways (services to FBCB2 and whatever units sell into that maybe it's take 10k seats, but that would like go through deferral)
sixth, a lot of my final impressions for this 10k will be based on cash-on-hand ye and AR-AP
seventh, so ... any guesses on end of year cash?
So, in the end
1. SMB looks disappointing by about $1m
2. Some of the non-recurring will go by-by
3. The timing of SMB softness, Safend costs, and GM/BASF falling off the books is going to make for a rough period until demonstrated mil or other such.
4. I wonder how much cash they ended the year with.
Did I mention cash?
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